馬沙老友最近就先後做出以下動作:
老友A本來跟家人同住,其實暫時無乜實際住屋需要。早3、4年樓市起步之初,馬沙及其他老友都曾經勸老友A先買入一個市區小型單位,租出等租客幫佢供住先,到有需要結婚時收回自住或賣出另購新婚居所。老友A一直不為所動,直到今年初,眼見樓價日日係咁升,而本來可買入一個市區小型單位的價錢,現時只能買入一個市區500呎居屋單位。老友A生怕遲啲連市區500呎居屋單位都買唔到,即時買入一個市區17年樓齡500呎居屋單位自住。
老友B於2003年結婚,婚後一直於青衣區租樓住。當年馬沙問佢既然有能力,青衣區樓價尚算合理,點解唔買? 老友B當時答曰:「見過97樓價係咁跌,都唔知跌完未,真係怕伯!」。老友B於06年生咗第一個小朋友,馬沙再問佢老哥會唔會買樓,佢話要再睇定啲先,如是者一租就7年。早兩個月,老友B終於出手,係青衣區買入一個11年樓齡近千呎單位自住。
老友C同女友拍拖多年,都係時候結婚。雖然資金不多,不過考慮到在低息環境下,計掂條數,供樓同租樓差不多,加上怕依家唔買,以後都買唔到。早幾個月在深水埗區以150萬以下買入一個近20年樓齡的小型單位自住。
老友D眼見將軍澳某大私人屋苑自住物業升咗成100萬,上月走去銀行加按,吐現80萬。上周以近250萬買入一個800幾呎將軍澳居屋單位作自住。而本來自住的私人屋苑物業將以約1萬元租出。經過悉心安排,往後扣除租金收入後,每月供樓淨支出降至3千多元。
老友E手持百萬元現金,近日聯同兄弟姊妹合資買入一個市區物業,準備放租3幾年後賣出,期望到時能財租兼收。
老友F一家四口連工人現住一個已供完的物業。由於現居根本不夠地方用,想換一個過千呎單位改善生活質數。睇樓數月,計算過風險後,已放棄睇那些過千萬假豪宅。取而代之,努力於何文田及窩打老道山一帶尋找實用率極高的過千呎近40年樓齡舊樓。上星期本已睇中一個盤,惟於落定時遭賣家反價而交易告吹。現仍努力睇樓中。
老友G夫婦最為進取,上月本準備以300萬作半自用及半投資方式買入何文田上車盤俊文苑細單位。佢地準備先租出物業,直到遲啲有小朋友後收回自住或在同區換樓,享受該區名校校網。不過早兩日聽朋友講開,老友G夫婦近日越睇越豪,早兩日已經睇緊廣播道近千呎單位。如果真係成事,風險都咪話唔高。
以上老友們在交易前,除非直接開口問馬沙個人意見,否則馬沙都唔會主動開口比意見,費事阻人發達。再講,買樓唔同買股票,買股票比錯意見輸極都有限。買樓睇錯市分分鐘輸身家,萬劫不復,97年真係見唔少。況且大多數嘅人,你比啱意見絕對唔會感謝你,因為係佢地自己好眼光。相反,比錯意見呢,分分鐘講足你一世及怨足你一世,仿彿自己完全無責任。
星期四, 7月 29, 2010
星期三, 7月 28, 2010
樓價痴線系列 (二)
上文提到,馬沙對最近火熱嘅樓市越來越檐心。理由係政府早前已經試圖利用口術,再加所謂行政手段「九招十ニ式 」去撲火,但樓市不但未有因此而降溫,在高價賣地後更如火上加油,多區呎價再下一城,更已有多個大型屋苑如太古城呎價超越97。
有人話好多地區跟97價仍有距離,所以未算泡沫。但問題係97距今已經13年,若計入13年物業折舊及將要面對的維修成本,其實好多比較高齡嘅大型屋苑,例如太古城、美孚、德福及淘大等等,個人認為現呎價以經超越97價。試問13年前(97時)已經30年的物業高峰賣$7,000一呎,今日43年樓仲值$7,000一呎嗎? 位處傳統豪宅區及極具發展商收購價值的物業可能可以除外。
另外,馬沙近月亦留意到越來越多「本來無想過要置業」、「本來未準備好置業」、「從未試過炒樓」及「本來無想過買樓收租」人士,突然四出睇樓,仲越睇越貴,好似啲樓唔駛錢咁。佢地突然趕住買樓,心態不外乎兩個。第一係啲樓越升越有,依家唔買,遲啲驚買唔到。第ニ係趁樓價仲未見頂,反正啲錢放係銀行又無息收,倒不如加入炒樓,或是買樓收租,一兩年後樓價升三兩成,再放出財息兼收。
實際例子,另文再講!
有人話好多地區跟97價仍有距離,所以未算泡沫。但問題係97距今已經13年,若計入13年物業折舊及將要面對的維修成本,其實好多比較高齡嘅大型屋苑,例如太古城、美孚、德福及淘大等等,個人認為現呎價以經超越97價。試問13年前(97時)已經30年的物業高峰賣$7,000一呎,今日43年樓仲值$7,000一呎嗎? 位處傳統豪宅區及極具發展商收購價值的物業可能可以除外。
另外,馬沙近月亦留意到越來越多「本來無想過要置業」、「本來未準備好置業」、「從未試過炒樓」及「本來無想過買樓收租」人士,突然四出睇樓,仲越睇越貴,好似啲樓唔駛錢咁。佢地突然趕住買樓,心態不外乎兩個。第一係啲樓越升越有,依家唔買,遲啲驚買唔到。第ニ係趁樓價仲未見頂,反正啲錢放係銀行又無息收,倒不如加入炒樓,或是買樓收租,一兩年後樓價升三兩成,再放出財息兼收。
實際例子,另文再講!
星期二, 7月 27, 2010
樓價痴線系列 (一)
好耐無寫過關於香港樓市嘅睇法,對於目前嘅樓市,馬沙只能用一個「貴」字去形容。
記得對上一次寫樓市時,馬沙仲夠膽大大聲叫有實際住屋需要嘅準買家,只要認真計掂供樓條數,唔買所謂假豪宅,不妨入市。始終200幾萬6-700呎自住樓,進可攻、退可守。不過近呢幾個月,樓價越升越有,馬沙就開始有啲擔心。
首先,現時開賣的新盤,不論坐落何處,都話係豪宅,叫價無1萬都8,000蚊一呎。嘩,計一計,一個一家四口小家庭,若要加一個菲傭,建築面積700呎,實用面積得4xx呎,已經算係必須。但市區一個咁嘅新建成單位,叫價竟超過500萬。
現今香港夫婦合共月入6萬肯定唔算少,但要儲30%首期連雜費200萬(計及150物業首期、厘印費、律師費、裝修及家俬電器等等),談何容易? 即使攪掂份首期,上會350萬,在如此低息環境,月供2萬餘,已經不是輕鬆。若然他日不幸加息3、4厘,情況著實令人擔心。
坊間有專家話年底或明年前無加息空間,就算加息,升幅都只會好輕微。但世事難料,事問97年以息率10厘以上供樓嘅業主們,又可曾想到今時今日,供樓息率竟然可以低過1厘?
所以,在當前市況,買樓作投資用途及作自住用途要分得好清楚。買樓投資者,即係炒家,既然做得出呢種超高孖展玩意,後果自負。自住用家,尤其第一次置業者,緊記要計好條數,特別要做好壓力測試,例如先假設將來收入下調2成,供樓利息上調至5厘。要記住,香港好多97高位入市自住用家,能夠經歷樓價跌去一半以上,直到今日見到家鄉都未死,全因佢地過去10幾年,在數次股災樓劫,SARS及經濟低迷的環境下,仲持續有能力一直供樓。
最後,對於真係有住屋需要嘅首次置業者,究竟應否現在高追,則有時間再另文再談。
記得對上一次寫樓市時,馬沙仲夠膽大大聲叫有實際住屋需要嘅準買家,只要認真計掂供樓條數,唔買所謂假豪宅,不妨入市。始終200幾萬6-700呎自住樓,進可攻、退可守。不過近呢幾個月,樓價越升越有,馬沙就開始有啲擔心。
首先,現時開賣的新盤,不論坐落何處,都話係豪宅,叫價無1萬都8,000蚊一呎。嘩,計一計,一個一家四口小家庭,若要加一個菲傭,建築面積700呎,實用面積得4xx呎,已經算係必須。但市區一個咁嘅新建成單位,叫價竟超過500萬。
現今香港夫婦合共月入6萬肯定唔算少,但要儲30%首期連雜費200萬(計及150物業首期、厘印費、律師費、裝修及家俬電器等等),談何容易? 即使攪掂份首期,上會350萬,在如此低息環境,月供2萬餘,已經不是輕鬆。若然他日不幸加息3、4厘,情況著實令人擔心。
坊間有專家話年底或明年前無加息空間,就算加息,升幅都只會好輕微。但世事難料,事問97年以息率10厘以上供樓嘅業主們,又可曾想到今時今日,供樓息率竟然可以低過1厘?
所以,在當前市況,買樓作投資用途及作自住用途要分得好清楚。買樓投資者,即係炒家,既然做得出呢種超高孖展玩意,後果自負。自住用家,尤其第一次置業者,緊記要計好條數,特別要做好壓力測試,例如先假設將來收入下調2成,供樓利息上調至5厘。要記住,香港好多97高位入市自住用家,能夠經歷樓價跌去一半以上,直到今日見到家鄉都未死,全因佢地過去10幾年,在數次股災樓劫,SARS及經濟低迷的環境下,仲持續有能力一直供樓。
最後,對於真係有住屋需要嘅首次置業者,究竟應否現在高追,則有時間再另文再談。
星期一, 7月 26, 2010
好文共賞 (一)
非常值得港童父母深思的一篇文章.....
Cantonese, Please
By VERNA YU
Published: July 22, 2010
HONG KONG — I had always presumed that speaking to your child in your native tongue was the most natural thing in the world. Apparently not everyone thinks so.
When we held a birthday party for our two-year-old daughter several months ago, I had a bit of a shock.
The first sign came when a four-year-old Chinese boy looked annoyed and frustrated when I asked in Cantonese what snacks he would like from the table.
“No, no, no!” he yelled in English. His mother promptly translated what I said into English.
This baffled me. The boy was born and bred here in Hong Kong, and his parents are both native speakers of the dominant Cantonese dialect, but they speak to their children only in their less-than-perfect English.
It turned out they have a simple reason: They want their children to get into a prestigious international school.
They worry that if their children speak Cantonese at home they will not learn enough English to pass the interview.
The mother is delighted with her achievement. Her son has been accepted by an international kindergarten and her younger girl’s first words were all in English.
I quickly realized that she wasn’t the only one who thought like this. I noticed that several other parents at the birthday party were also speaking broken English to their children.
“I will show you how does it work,” said one father in heavily-accented English, showing a toy train to his 19-month-old son.
He admitted with slight embarrassment that his English pronunciation and grammar were not great, and trying to communicate with his toddler in a language he himself is struggling with has led to problems.
“One day I was trying to tell him this is how you button your shirt,” he said, switching into Cantonese. “But then I couldn’t say it in English, so I had to ring up a friend and ask.”
I asked: Doesn’t he think it is better to talk to his toddler in the language he is most at ease in?
“I think you’ve lived abroad for too long — you don’t understand what parents here have to think about,” the boy’s mother said. “Competition for international schools is fierce. If we don’t make sure he speaks English now, he won’t pass the interview.”
I looked at her very cute toddler, who was busy chasing a ball on the floor, and felt a bit sad.
The boy is not yet two, and he was still babbling away in baby words. Yet in this competitive world, it is considered better for him to be exposed only to English, a language that his parents are not confident speaking but one they believe is more valuable than their native tongue.
More and more, ambitious parents in Hong Kong are giving their children a head-start in English by putting them into English-speaking play groups, kindergartens and international schools. At these elite institutions, Mandarin Chinese is sometimes taught as a second language.
As for the local Cantonese dialect, who cares?
I am saddened. What will happen to those age-old nursery rhymes our grandmothers taught us, the songs we sang at kindergarten, those Tang-dynasty poems that every preschool child was taught to recite?
And surely the classic tales of the “Twenty-four pious sons” — the stories that the Chinese have used to teach their children about the Confucian virtue of filial piety since the 14th century — can’t have the same cultural resonance when translated into English.
Besides, Cantonese carries echoes of ancient Chinese that no longer exist in the official Mandarin. It is a lively language full of colorful expressions.
It is our heritage, and if we don’t pass it on, who will?
When these children are not taught to speak the language of their ancestors, a connection with their native culture is bound to be lost.
And when they grow up, how will they see themselves? Will they still have a sense of belonging to Chinese culture? Will this society’s future elites be international in outlook, yet somehow rootless in culture?
Perhaps I’m being alarmist, but I wonder whether there will be a day when we in Hong Kong come to regret the decline of our language. By that time, it may be too late.
Verna Yu is a freelance writer.
Cantonese, Please
By VERNA YU
Published: July 22, 2010
HONG KONG — I had always presumed that speaking to your child in your native tongue was the most natural thing in the world. Apparently not everyone thinks so.
When we held a birthday party for our two-year-old daughter several months ago, I had a bit of a shock.
The first sign came when a four-year-old Chinese boy looked annoyed and frustrated when I asked in Cantonese what snacks he would like from the table.
“No, no, no!” he yelled in English. His mother promptly translated what I said into English.
This baffled me. The boy was born and bred here in Hong Kong, and his parents are both native speakers of the dominant Cantonese dialect, but they speak to their children only in their less-than-perfect English.
It turned out they have a simple reason: They want their children to get into a prestigious international school.
They worry that if their children speak Cantonese at home they will not learn enough English to pass the interview.
The mother is delighted with her achievement. Her son has been accepted by an international kindergarten and her younger girl’s first words were all in English.
I quickly realized that she wasn’t the only one who thought like this. I noticed that several other parents at the birthday party were also speaking broken English to their children.
“I will show you how does it work,” said one father in heavily-accented English, showing a toy train to his 19-month-old son.
He admitted with slight embarrassment that his English pronunciation and grammar were not great, and trying to communicate with his toddler in a language he himself is struggling with has led to problems.
“One day I was trying to tell him this is how you button your shirt,” he said, switching into Cantonese. “But then I couldn’t say it in English, so I had to ring up a friend and ask.”
I asked: Doesn’t he think it is better to talk to his toddler in the language he is most at ease in?
“I think you’ve lived abroad for too long — you don’t understand what parents here have to think about,” the boy’s mother said. “Competition for international schools is fierce. If we don’t make sure he speaks English now, he won’t pass the interview.”
I looked at her very cute toddler, who was busy chasing a ball on the floor, and felt a bit sad.
The boy is not yet two, and he was still babbling away in baby words. Yet in this competitive world, it is considered better for him to be exposed only to English, a language that his parents are not confident speaking but one they believe is more valuable than their native tongue.
More and more, ambitious parents in Hong Kong are giving their children a head-start in English by putting them into English-speaking play groups, kindergartens and international schools. At these elite institutions, Mandarin Chinese is sometimes taught as a second language.
As for the local Cantonese dialect, who cares?
I am saddened. What will happen to those age-old nursery rhymes our grandmothers taught us, the songs we sang at kindergarten, those Tang-dynasty poems that every preschool child was taught to recite?
And surely the classic tales of the “Twenty-four pious sons” — the stories that the Chinese have used to teach their children about the Confucian virtue of filial piety since the 14th century — can’t have the same cultural resonance when translated into English.
Besides, Cantonese carries echoes of ancient Chinese that no longer exist in the official Mandarin. It is a lively language full of colorful expressions.
It is our heritage, and if we don’t pass it on, who will?
When these children are not taught to speak the language of their ancestors, a connection with their native culture is bound to be lost.
And when they grow up, how will they see themselves? Will they still have a sense of belonging to Chinese culture? Will this society’s future elites be international in outlook, yet somehow rootless in culture?
Perhaps I’m being alarmist, but I wonder whether there will be a day when we in Hong Kong come to regret the decline of our language. By that time, it may be too late.
Verna Yu is a freelance writer.
星期二, 7月 06, 2010
美元的崩盤 (Meltup)
美國不斷狂印鈔票,美元最終會否崩盤呢個問題,馬沙想了一整年也未能找到一個比較好嘅結論,去說服自己怎樣面對即將到來的通貨膨脹問題。今天在網上巧遇以下由美國國家通膨協會（NIA）發表的一輯名為Meltup嘅影片,實在值得大家静心細味!
真係一個好有意思嘅節目!
Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
Part 4
Part 5
Part 6
真係一個好有意思嘅節目!
Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
Part 4
Part 5
Part 6
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