星期五, 3月 16, 2007

彈極唔上

受美國次級按揭市場爆煲拖累,恒指周三又裂口低開530點,午後更擴大至近 600 點,最終收市下跌 496 點,馬沙當天因公幹不在香港,未能感受當天氣氛。

昨天恒指反彈 133 點收市報 18,969 點,雖然 50 天平均線正在下降至 20,061 點,但昨天收市卻離 50 天線越來越遠。馬沙周一講過,如這兩周未能重上 50 天平均線,調整肯定未完。

另一值得投資者注意的是昨天成交額下跌至 350 億,是近月來很低的成交額,看來後市真的要試一試 250 天平均線 17,774 點,馬沙相信這個月淡友應該會贏番一次。除了恒指反覆下跌,其實國企指數亦好不了多少,現時除 150 天及 250 天線外,所有移動平均線亦已經跌穿,10 天線又剛跌穿 100 天線並持續下降,正向 150 天線 8,395 點邁步。

大市經多次反覆下跌後,一些馬沙愛股已漸漸邁向馬沙射程範圍,令馬沙有一點點心動。首先,滙控 (005) 昨天收 134.3 元,即除息後約 131 元,若美市繼續被次級按揭公司負面新聞拖累,滙控股價無可避免要下試更低價位。

雖然近日有人指出滙控未來可能因北美次級按揭業務影響,有機會下試 100 元,但馬沙相信,若滙控有幸跌入 120 元至 125 元的射程範圍,馬沙會毫不考慮將它射低,收歸為新長線投資組合主將。作為長線投資,息率接近5厘算是理想。其實除滙控外,五行三保亦由高位累跌 15 至 30% 不等,其中平保、國壽及交行正向馬沙的射程範圍進發。

(3月16日刊於《am730》)

19 則留言:

若缺齋老人 說...

馬老,小弟另一支持笨象的原因,就係佢跌到某水位會有大量入市頂住~

Albert 說...

在強勁Cash Flow下,06年增加派息,股價不會大跌。更不計07年股息應再增加(07個Yield都起碼5%)。

如果落到$100,個"Yield"真係高到您笑死。淨係收息每年個Return都差唔多7%,仲未計長線的Organic Growth (每年至少10%)

反正有信心個"Cash Profit"係穩定增長就OK!

馬沙 說...

Albert:

所以我話如果滙控有幸跌入 120 元至 125 元的射程範圍,馬沙會毫不考慮將它射低,收歸為新長線投資組合主將。

Albert 說...

馬沙兄:

我就反而想等D五行跌多D,將招行"招安",曉以大義.....嘿嘿

馬沙 說...

Albert 兄:

我都希望五行跌多D,以平保及國壽“保家衛國”,再以招行及建行“行走大地”....

會計仔 說...

Hey Char,

Maybe a little wait does worth.

First of all, most big guys have certain degree loss on subprime mess, most laughable is Morgan Stanley, who placed a 10b bet on New Century just a few days before its bankruptcy. You can feel the panic if you see in CNBC or Bloomberg TV. Ordinary anaylysts wont say good it when it is in so much heat, for their job!

Without any reports singing good, we go back to earnings. Historically, HSBC US operations announces results in mid May, which is later than most US listed co. It would be better strategy to wait until mid Apr to see how the general market situation (earnings!) of these co changes from 06Q4 to 07Q1 before you make any decision. There are a lot of data you can depend on, GM consumer finance sector profit, Citigroup CF sector profit, earnings and provisions data of all the subprime cos you found in the US headlines today.

It is the website for US 証監會, i used it to check US data.

http://www.sec.gov/edgar/searchedgar/companysearch.html

With no foreseeable forces driving HSBC up from mid-Mar to mid-Apr. Waiting more data to make a decision seems a more sensible move. Forget all those foolish price targets for $180 or $100, look at how the industry counterparts are doing, thats my advice.

Winston 說...

Hi 馬沙, 我諗會計仔講得有道理.

況且, set 完買入/賣出位後通常都很難實行

其實會計仔寫了一篇很詳細的分析, 好有參考價值.

Albert 說...

如果匯控(5)北美(HSBC Finance + HSBC USA + HSBC Canada)全部都係做Sub-Prime Mortgage,我就先驚。

現實係點.....人地Management Disclose得好清楚,睇下年報P.189至P.192。應該難不到會計界人仕。

仲未同您計北美業務個NPL Coverage巳達150%,06年"北美Impairment Charges"已大大超過"06年 Actual Charge-Off"......即係人地已作出保守準備。

散戶我不"Expect"他們清楚盤生意。但如果連專業人仕都搞唔清楚,就.......

仲未同您計其他"Markets"增長應不錯。

Albert 說...

馬沙兄:

我都想"保家衛國",只愁沒有機會....呵呵:

平保
人壽
招行
交通

如果買"四大",我寧買渣打,P/E低過,質素好過,增長唔低得過D"四大"...

建行都有唔少問題,所以P/E一直比招交低。

題外話,馬沙兄喜歡"Gundam"??

會計仔 說...

如果你有看開招股書, 每隻新股都會有依段:

陳述、保證並承諾 閣下了解股份未曾亦不會根據美國證券法註冊,以及 閣下於填寫申
請表格當時身處美國境外,亦非美籍人士(定義見美國證券法S 規例);

這是因為美國在post Enron 之後成立了極奇嚴格的SOX 法規, 上市公司為了prevent prospectus 的資料披露水平不足或 information not complete (大佬,有d 新股明搵笨, 點比complete info?) 而承擔過高的風險, 所以唔比依d 人買。

Under SOX rules, giving misleading info would go to jail. Theoretically, the quality of those information would be of not worse quality than those in HSBC annual report, if not higher.

Below is the disclosure filed in SEC under the tight tight SOX rules:

"We have now been able to determine
that a significant number of our second lien customers have underlying adjustable rate first mortgages
that face repricing in the near-term which has impacted the probability of repayment on the related
second lien mortgage loan. As the interest rate adjustments will occur in an environment of
substantially higher interest rates, lower home value appreciation and tightening credit, we expect the probability of default for adjustable rate first mortgages subject to repricing as well as any second lien
mortgage loans that are subordinate to an adjustable rate first lien will be greater than what we have
historically experienced. As a result, our loss estimates relating to our Mortgage Services' portfolio
have increased."

其實這只是adequate provision, not overprovision for future. 如果問題真係唔大, 係唔會令第二最大的New Century file 破產保護, 唔會令25% of top 100 US subprime mortgage co 破產或賤價賣盤, 唔會令成個 Wall Street 既精英analyst 唱到d subprime stocks 既share price 跌50%-90%, 唔會令退休既格老出番黎話美國會因為咁而有30% 年底前陷入衰退。

格老話subprime mortgage 有signs of deterioriation, 我寧願信佢, 多過向全世界推番三個星期前自己講既野既現任management.

另外, 如你有看half year to half year analysis, 你會發覺除了non-HK Asia 之外, growth 其實真係不多, 香港和歐洲也在倒退中。

都係果句, 你還是看看其他US subprime co Q1 的provision 增加的情況再看吧,如果其他公司的07Q1 provision 真的比06Q4 增加少於50%再考慮不遲, 如果隻隻US subprime mortgage 都有超巨額loss, 那便再看看future PE 抵不抵先再算。

Albert 說...

Not HOH Comparison
But YOY Comparison

Otherwise, you may fall into "Seasonlity Trap"

Besides, you can see loan growing in most markets, even including the North America

I see no slow-down in mommentum (except for US operation after tighter loan approval), if you think from a merchant-investor perspective

At least, now you admit being "Adequate Provision", instead of "Insufficient Provision" for the NA operation.


As what being said, US 2nd-lien mortgage merely accounts for 2% of HSBC's total loans. Even if most sub-prime mortgages go default (the very-worst scenario), it still won't hurt HSBC deeply from the mid-to-long term perspective. Besides, 2nd-lien mortgage value declined in 2H06 after tightened loan approval.

As such, such a risk is acceptable.

You can wait, but the market is always forward-looking....and it's the reality

Albert 說...

The real-risk could be the "Spill-Over" Effect to other loan types in the US. However, without any Enormous Bubble (like the IT bubble & financial bubble in 2000), such a chance is limited. The job market, particular for the middle class in the US, are healthy.

Traditional wisdom tells us that, big economic & financial slump should follow the below events:

1) Deteriorating Economy
2) Extra-high finacial market bubbles
3) Irrational Optimism from the public

At least (2) & (3) don't exist right now. Instead, the market has been cautious, driving low P/Es for the blue-chips.

Anyway, thanks for sharing, Account-Boy ^.^

會計仔 說...

同意(3) don't exist right now, 至於(2)我睇CNBC TV, 果d 主持每天都用bubble 來形容,畢竟美國樓市已大漲小回左十幾年. 不同意just 2nd lien, 你可見到1st lien deliquency 都上升中,亦有不過冇2nd lien咁勁, 上面既managment discussion 亦有提過first mortgage 既問題. Seasonality 的問題, for retails 可能好勁, 但在銀行股中應不明顯.

歐美股市流行sell in May and go away, 等等mid-Apr 既updated data, 應該係最sensible 既做法, 起碼香港應該冇mud 人會去美國証監搵料,就算data 好都唔會好快流出街。如果美國斑友仔今年真係一年輸番哂n 年既earnings 先破產, 而家既historical PE 就真係會misleading.

如果你真係唔等得既, 可考慮看看Citigroup/GM/GE US consumer finance segment Q1 report 既provision/ profit. 四月中一定有,再等得d 既可看看每天都是headlines 既幾隻subprime stocks既 Q1. SEC 網頁已post 在上面.

散仔 說...

我等緊入 "國壽" 同 "交行"

馬沙 說...

會計仔兄:

其實你對滙控的分析真的極具前瞻性,從你一早指出北美問題便知!

只是我認為作為長缐投資者,只要投資向上有足夠利潤,向下沒有極大風險就可以了! 要知道估頂及估底都好難估得準確.

我現在100%現金(即冇貨在手),以滙控為例,我願意在$120-125間投入第一注額,若之後下跌至$100,我投入第二注額,平均價便是$113,向下约12%,但如北美冇事,向上十分理想.

再者,下跌至$100即息率已近6厘,長期持有已非常吸引!

當然,我亦會以市場變化而改變決定.我現在要練習的是“等〞!!我已等了多月,但我仍不會為買而買.....呵呵...

Albert 說...

我唔您有無砌過HSBC個"Excel Model",如細心看,於歐、亞、拉美及HK之"Total Loan"、"Operating Income"、"PPOP"及"Pre--Tax Profit",2H06比1H05,係上升緊,歐洲個"Loan"係2H06仲升得好勁(其實我就黎要收錢)

"歐美股市流行sell in May and go away, 等等mid-Apr 既updated data" --> 欠缺大將之氣度,亦欠奉遠見,沒有定力,恕不敢恭維!!

如馬沙兄所言,"作為長缐投資者,只要投資向上有足夠利潤,向下沒有極大風險就可以了! 要知道估頂及估底都好難估得準確"。

長線商人著眼企業長線前景及"Competitive Advantage",否則因小失大,為了一棵樹而放棄整個森林。

Albert 說...

2H06比1H05,係上升緊,歐洲個"Loan"係2H06仲升得好勁(其實我就黎要收錢)


應係2H06比2H05.....

會計仔 說...

實在無法同意銀行股的seasonality effect 比data timeliness 重要, 不過有一個例外, 美國的業務consumer finance 比較重, 在美國零售業最重要的Thanks Giving 和Christmas 都在2H 的情況下, 2H 應該要好過1H 先合格。

還有, 唔知你有沒有留意歐洲d 經濟數據在世界杯後急速轉好,當然, 英國的情況時好時壞的確有distortion.

就算真係有seasonal factor, 都係 loan demand 既事, 你可見到Europe既問題係net operating income 升幅頂唔住operating expenses 既 inflation pressure, 睇依個問題當時要睇H2 vs H1

至於HK, 說是seasonal factor, 不如說是今年的年頭mortgage war 見效吧, 可信性可能會高d, 至於新的mortgage war 會有咩result, 我唔識估.

至於欠奉遠見否,自當幾個月後再看.我討論事情從來對事不對人,在馬沙的地盤爭論, 其實我也有點不好意思, 我對馬沙的打擾亦應到此為止。

等待一些沒有人留意的蛛絲馬跡去減低大量風險, 還是鬥氣要展示"大將之氣度、遠見,及定力",相信讀者自有抉擇。

告訴你一個故事, Buffet 是在Ebay 跌80%時買入的.

Albert 說...

"Europe既問題係net operating income 升幅頂唔住operating expenses 既 inflation pressure" --> 唔好開玩笑,大部份"錢莊"下半年個"Cost-to-Income"實比上半年為高,點解? 因為年尾花紅及Bonus。

閣下大可睇下各大香港、大陸及歐美銀行,幾乎全部下半年個"Cost-to-Income"比上半年為高。

我諗閣下真係要同匯控逐個"Geographical Operation"計下"Cost-to-Income Ratio"先得。

可說除左北美成本管理不如理想外,其他地區都OK! 仲未計抄左"前household"班"既高薪又不力"高層,將來有成本改善空間。

Account-Boy兄總是喜歡出Puzzle俾我去Solve,真是良師也....呵呵!



馬沙兄:

不好意思,吹水吹到兄個地盤,勞煩清理多餘積水!

日後賠罪!!