星期四, 7月 03, 2008

香港經濟前景

港股踏入08年下半年首個交易日,隨各地市場進一步下跌398點,收市報21,704點。究竟港股幾時見底,馬沙就唔知道,唯一知道的就是刻下好多散戶正在坐艇。

根據近月港股成交額逐漸萎縮,大概可以知道散戶入市意欲已漸漸失去。逢股必升的日子過去,留下來的相信又係手持大量蟹貨的小股民,以及還手持資金,正在靜心等待低價入貨的所謂價值投資者。

股票市場,投資氣氛幾乎主宰一切。上年今日,幾乎同是26元的中國人壽(2628),市場上不論財經演員或散戶,無人會覺得貴。就算後期股價上升至50元,大家仍一致看好,沒有幾多所謂財經專家提出客觀分析。

港股跌到呢個位, 馬沙覺得對於長線投資者來說,其實已經相當吸引。但散戶入市前必須認真想想當前經濟是否已經出現巨大變化,更不可盡信各大媒體對當前經濟的分析!

就以香港為例,近日好多人話港股下跌,加上未來可能加息,樓市隨之將會下滑,本港經濟將會出現放緩。但現實又點呢?

各大商場食肆人流似乎未有減少。對於商廈的租務,各大業主如「恒隆」般更繼續大咬,新訂租約加幅動不動就是六至八成,因為大把客等住租,完全不怕舊客搬走。

有在中環某著名商廈經營商店8年的友人,近日更被業主「置地」發出逐客令。友人話唔係租金談不攏,而係佢個舖位被一名牌睇中,出超高價向業主「置地」承租。名店咁積極以高價搶舖開新店,是否表示仍看好香港未來幾年的經濟呢?

(2008年7月3日刊於《am730》)

9 則留言:

Professor Howdy 說...





There is a time for everything,
a season for every activity
under heaven. A time to be
born and a time to die. A
time to plant and a time to
harvest. A time to kill and
a time to heal. A time to
tear down and a time to
rebuild. A time to cry and
a time to laugh. A time to
grieve and a time to dance.
A time to scatter stones
and a time to gather stones.
A time to embrace and a
time to turn away. A time to
search and a time to lose.
A time to keep and a time to
throw away. A time to tear
and a time to mend. A time
to be quiet and a time to
speak up. A time to love
and a time to hate. A time
for war and a time for peace.

Best wishes for continued ascendancy,
Dr. Howdy

P.S. Here's some blogs & videos
that I found of interest as
I negotiated my way through
cyberspace:


Video With Above Poem
Every Student
My Thoughts
My Blog Video
Religion Comparison
Avoid This Place
Danish Cartoons
Arabic Cartoons
Muhammad or Jesus???
Answering Islam
Is Jesus God?
A Short Look At Six World Religions
God's Word in different languages...
How to become a Christian
Who Is Jesus?
See The Word
Watch The Jesus Movie
Spanish Cartoons
Islam Watch
Former Muslims
German Cartoons
Chinese Cartoons
The Trinity
Italian Cartoons
Greek Cartoons
Japanese Cartoons
Portuguese Cartoons
Many Languages
Around the Well
French Cartoons
Hindi Cartoons
Russian Cartoons
Little Girl
Get Saved?
You & Sin City
Mysterious Disappearance
Evolution Video
The Departure
You Need To See This
'Thought & Humor'

Wist u dat de God van u houdt?
Avez-vous su que Dieu vous aime ?
Wußten Sie, daß Gott Sie liebt?
Avete saputo che il dio li ama?
Você soube que o deus o ama?
¿Usted sabía que el dios le ama?

Click Here



Tell me sometime what your
thoughts are about all this:O)

DAB is the best! 說...

you can see that we dab is so succesful on july 1st!
only 10000 misinformed stupid people are going to the meaningless protest!!!!!!!!
those 民主棍 are all fake people lying to everyone in hk!! how can they even use democracy as their party name!!!
we dab will take over the legislative very soon! and hk will be a stable place that no stupid 民主棍 can stop us!

sherman 說...

"dab is the bad" 唉! satan 退去吧!

若缺齋老人 說...

「名店」唔會睇錯?

馬沙 說...

若老,

「名店」會唔會睇錯我就唔知,我只知「名店」未必好賺過友人的小商店!

友人的小商店生意額近$10M,但毛利率竟近6成....直逼種菜上市公司....絕對係比會計師及律師更好搵的其中一門專業!

人在SOHO, 李小龍 說...

那就要看是什麽商場。尖沙咀重慶商場、九龍灣Element、深水埗地鐵旁的深之都、銅鑼灣銅鑼坊等,就如市區死城。Element內有大量名店,但全日職員多過客。

商場食肆人流似乎未有減少,但經營成本大幅增加,即使如大家樂等集團有中央厨房,有十多個毛利率巳是非常高,很多細舖其實已出現赤字。

人在SOHO, 李小龍 說...

上面寫錯了,應該是九龍灣MegaBox。Element在九龍站,那裏人流好一點,最少人客多過職員,不過它集中做上面豪宅的生意,嚇到我這等窮人不噉下次光臨。

大家樂的經營邊際利潤率約十多個百份比,不是毛利率,比起大快活只有七點幾為高。

說...

油價高企同美元弱勢對香港既影響會慢慢浮現。名店大機構,行政處理極慢,今日中環開分店可能己經係年幾前既決定,況且名店要靚鋪志在宣傳多過賺錢(定係炒物業?)好難同中小企比。

唉小鎚係大淡友一名,見各大上市公司分分發出盈警,亦聽講連各大銀行都 suspend 所有香港既 head count 直至美國個邊 restructure 完先知我地呢邊以後既發展係點,對前景真係膽心。

若缺齋老人 說...

馬老:講起以前都有業內人士講:熊貓酒店遠比半島好搵。