剛剛假日,跟一朋友吃飯時,朋友問小沙若想做生意,那個行業可賺大錢,小沙想一想,即跟朋友說: "返鄉下耕田"
早兩天超大現代<0682>公報截至今年6月底止全年業績:
超大現代<0682.hk>公布截至今年6月底止全年業績，錄得純利13.58億元(人民幣下同)，升5%；扣除特別頂目收入後之純利為12.43億元，升11%；每股盈利0.57元，升3%；末期息每股派11.5分。 期內，營業額為27.98億元，去年同期為22.38億元。
超大現代<0682.hk>董事長郭浩表示，截至今年6月底止，持有手頭現金26.14億元(人民幣下同)，現時公司在內地之農業發展仍低，相信未來尚有很大發展空間。 另外，執行董事兼首席財務官陳志寶表示，明年資本性開支18-20億元。他又表示，現時可生產土地為28萬畝，06-08年擬購再購入20畝土地，希望藉此令3年後利潤倍增。
小沙無意及覺得無需要對此公司作出詳細的財務分析,首先,小沙在這五年間已看過不少對此公司的大大小小分析.再者,小沙從不相信此人世間竟有一間純利能高達53%而幾近無市場對手的公司.
尤其在中國,熟知中國市場的人都知,若有一商店能在國內賺錢,不出數月,附近必有大量同類商店.最後鬥過你死我活.此乃國內人做生意的一貫做法.
小沙有一認識20多年從事菜販行業的朋友對我說,除了在颱風後能賺取巨利外,那有可能有此純利,如有,為什麼全中國這麼多人耕田都咁貧窮?
小沙還記得6年前一次到國內公作回港途中在車上遇到一大學同學,此君在"大袋"的會計師行 (核數師) 工作,並剛為"大袋"完成年尾盤點. 小沙很好奇蔬菜怎樣盤點,向朋友請教,朋友說: "那有得點!! 只能坐著一輛好像哥爾夫球車般的小車在幾十畝的山上周圍去,他們說田入面是什麼就是什麼,有幾多就有幾多,難道你全部挖出來嗎?" 聽到這兒,小沙即時有點汗顏 (雖然小沙無從證實此大學同學說話內容的真確度。).
明乎此理,小沙不難相信,在不久將來,又有一班香港小股民要哭股喪...........
16 則留言:
wowoowow 剛剛用左幾分鐘睇最新果份報績公告,有超過一半應收賬係收現金,這間公司好勁. 如果這公司有人有本事把農地轉做商住地,咁不出十年仲發過李+x呀.
馬沙您好，
我是中環博客禤中怡，有些事想找您商量，可否在我的e-mail address留下您的聯絡方法。謝謝。
禤中怡上
係!!資本開支同埋盈利都同樣驚人.我估佢或者用了"以物易物,各自入帳"呢一招了!
假設(只係吹水)佢同A 公司協議, 以5萬斤菜換取A公司1噸肥料.當中不涉及任何現金交易.所以交易價格可以任佢up.
但佢可以記帳:
營收:10億元出售5萬斤菜
開支:10億元購入一噸肥料
相反,而A公司可以咁記:
營收:10億元出售一噸肥料
開支:10億元購入5萬斤菜
大家都做大生意!!
這間公司好有趣, 原來VP及唔少大行都有股份, 我好有興趣想知佢係點過芬佬果關 ?
轉貼。我未睇過 682 盤數，不過一見 "現金差不多來自借貸" 及 "預付長期租金" 就無興趣睇。
又，低毛利率唔等於風險低。
_____________________________________
產經
B11 東方日報
2006-09-20
計微知著：認真考量及分析疑點
說到上市公司財務報表充滿疑點，不得不分析一下被很多人質疑過的超大現代農業（0682 ）。
超大常常被人提到的疑點和上次提過的海域（1220 ），儘管有點類似，但實際上卻有所不同。這些坊間主要的疑點包括超高的毛利率、低水平的稅項開支及不斷膨脹的非流動資產。
究竟這些疑點詳情如何，相信需要從財務報表探索一下方能得到答案。
留意所繳稅款比例小
超大最近一份經審計的財務報表為 2005 年10 月年度。超大在該份報表內錄得22.4 億元人民幣的銷售，並獲得稅後股東應佔溢利 13.1 億元人民幣。兩者的增幅分別為 20.2% 和 29.9% 。若單看增幅，實屬理想。
但這等高純利率卻一直是坊間的質疑的地方。從財務報表所反映，超大的純利率為58.6% ，而毛利率則為67.4% 。
我不敢說這個毛利率一定不能賺到，事關一些化妝產品的銷售毛利的確可達到甚至超過這個水平。但是按正常狀況來衡量，在中國大陸經營的企業，是需繳付33% 的所得稅。
超大在稅務方面卻只需為稅前盈利13.2 億元人民幣，作出 1,000 萬元人民幣的稅項準備，在哪個角度來看，皆委屬一項合理的疑點。儘管財務報表的附註內載有管理層的解釋，表明有關稅項已獲有關部門確定，並且沒有被核數師加上保留意見，我仍然覺得投資者有特別注重留意的必要。
至於超大的非流動資產項目，當中有一項是頗為特別及並非常見的「預付長期租金」。這「預付租金」在資產負債表的總值為18.7 億元人民幣，比之前一年增加了7.3 億元人民幣。
根據附註所載，這些租金是用來支付一些租賃年期15 年至68 年的土地。然而，土地的詳情及面積卻沒有披露。
除這項「預付租金」外，超大的帳面亦擁有19 億元人民幣的機器設備，比之前一年增加了4.7 億元人民幣。兩個項目的價值增加大約是12 億元人民幣，佔去超大的全年盈利超過九成。這亦是大約反映超大的盈利所運用的地方。投資者可自行考量這些資產項目的質素。
現金差不多來自借貸
超大還有一點跟海域的財務狀況相似的地方，便是其現金水平及融資結構。海域在 2004 年 12 月年度的財務報表所示，現金水平為10.5 億港元，而同時期的銀行總貸款為 11.3 億港元。超大在 2005 年10 月時的現金水平為 19.5 億元人民幣，而同時期卻欠票據及銀行貸款共 18.6 億元人民幣。
以數字來衡量，兩者的現金水平皆差不多是來自借貸。以超大所示的高盈利能力，其實並沒有大舉借貸的必要。海域事件已反映了現金存款的一定風險，超大這項疑點的最終詮釋權則留給各讀者自行判斷了。
傑德信??誠會計師事務所合夥人鄔碩晉
I just want to say thank you !
hello everyone,
just want to make a quick note on 682.HK
i've been tracking this for at least 3 years and have been trying to figure out why growing vegetable is so profitable (~70% g.profit). Since I couldnt find anything wrong with the financial reports (BS/IS/SCF seems fine), i started asking people within the industry in china and it became much clearer
I don't want to directly comment since I cannot confirm the info from these industry insiders. But, here's some tips for you. Who is the biggest customer for 682.HK?? What is the background for the chairman??
good day
hello everyone,
just want to make a quick note on 682.HK
i've been tracking this for at least 3 years and have been trying to figure out why growing vegetable is so profitable (~70% g.profit). Since I couldnt find anything wrong with the financial reports (BS/IS/SCF seems fine), i started asking people within the industry in china and it became much clearer
I don't want to directly comment since I cannot confirm the info from these industry insiders. But, here's some tips for you. Who is the biggest customer for 682.HK?? What is the background for the chairman??
good day
1. Why dont people think through before giving their comments. The questions on 682's high GP ratio are not new and they only reflects that people still don't understand 682's business model. The competitoin will eventually emerge, but not now or within next 10 years at least. You dont know how fragmented the agriculture business is in China.
2. There are certain industries in China that are enjoying tax relief or even exemption which is granted by the central government out of certain social or economic motives. Agriculture is one of those industries.
If a company wants to boost up its profit by making up its tax account, it will of course try to keep the tax as low as possible. But to make it as low as nearly zero, the management are either idiots, causing everyone to raise his eyebrows. Or the company may be genuinely entitled to the tax exemption. If 682 really qualifies for the tax exemption, what's the implication in terms of the scope and size of its business? Use your brain and answer yourself.
3. Some one may critize 682's negative cash flow. I want to ask them whether they can distinguish between discretionary capital expenditure and un-discretionary one. Some companies simply spend CAPEX to maintain its level of profit generating capacity (like replacing old machines), some use it to achieve profit growth.
That's all.
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超大今次唔知死唔死得!
I got a lump in my throat when I thought of that.
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