星期五, 8月 24, 2007

反思

恆生指數這兩星期的表現,實在令很多投資者無所適從。當下的走勢,已經完全進入瘋狂階段,變得好像沒有基本因素可言。

上週恆指受次按問題影響,由高位23,000多點下跌至最低的19,387點,非常接近250天牛熊分界線。投資者在極度恐慌的情況下,美國聯儲局突然宣佈減低貼現率半厘,大部份投資者都等待迎接週一的大奇蹟日出現。

正當大家未決定是應該追貨還是趁反彈減持時,中央又突然宣佈開放炒股自由行,令恆指連續大升四日。一輪快上快落,恆指昨天話咁快又重上23,000點水平。如此市況,馬沙真的未曾見過。

不知這一浪大家有否賺到大錢,馬沙就什麼都沒有做過。但依馬沙個人觀察,在上週大跌時,滿倉優質股又一股都未有減持者,上週末應該賬面大縮水,直至昨日應該可原地踏步,即身家沒有多大變動。

而上週滿手二、三線股未減持者,本週恆指雖然大升,但今天應該還要再坐一會。

最不幸的應該都是上週五低位被震走的投資者,元氣大傷後,如本週還未有膽量買貨追回損失,在恆指重上高位又敢不敢再度入市呢?

講到尾,即只有上週五起夠膽在低位不斷買貨的投資者才能大賺,除去一眾春江鴨外,究竟有多少散戶是這一類呢?

馬沙這幾天不停反思,在對外有沒完沒了的次按問題,但港內又出現投資自由行這個看似擁有無限能量的購買力,應該點做呢?

馬沙真想大家留言報導實況。

(8月24日刊於《am730》)

23 則留言:

米都話唔搞咯 說...

我係賣左無入番o既一群,唔係唔想/敢買,而係個市升得實在太快,入唔到貨。

Abacus1 說...

Two thoughts to share:

(1) learn to respect the market and don't try to outsmart it every time, minimize decision making and you can spare yourself a lot of mistakes and commissions
(2) like Mr. Cho says, buy stocks, not market.

Forever 說...

敵不動, 我不動, 以靜制動, 存夠錢等下跌時再入.

kaka 說...

我都係什麼都沒有做過

馬沙 說...

陳兄,

你就滿倉持貨.....找到有好嘢但手中無錢...

我就手中有錢但找不到好貨.....唉....

DDN 說...

In my view, the asset/stock price is more or less priced upon people's confidence. If we still keep worrying about the price movement rather the company itself, we could only fall in various technical traps.

Luckily, I have bought some on Fri. But personally, I think another rally is coming when FOMC discuss about the rate cut.

匿名 說...

馬沙 u r such a crap...when the market went up, u said it was too high to buy....when there was panic selling last week, u said the index had further to fall...

Derek 說...

"when there was panic selling last week, u said the index had further to fall... "

上周連續幾日大跌時,試問有多少人敢睇好後市?

如果唔係周五晚聯儲局宣布將貼現率減半厘,當晚美股大升,再跌都唔出奇!

再講,呢次反彈實在太快,好多人(包括我自己)都入唔到貨。

馬沙兄話如此市況真的未曾見過,我估好多人都未見過。

grace 說...

"而上週滿手二、三線股未減持者,本週恆指雖然大升,但今天應該還要再坐一會。"

我就係呢類,死唔止蝕...而家坐潛水艇中...嗚嗚....

貪狼 說...

馬仔,

依本老狼行走股場20年,你睇淡的大方向一定冇錯。近日大升只是出人意表的全球股巿死前迴光返照吧了,何需返思?

繼續揸Cash等吧!全球股巿離大去之期不遠矣。

KY 說...

I was the one who sold large amount of stock during last Friday(20/7)'s stock plunge (HSI down 1100 - 1200). No doubt, I incurred substantial losses in this volatile trade day.

However, as i know, a few big players were able to make "Great Profits" during this special trading day by buying a huge amount of stock after 3 p.m.- just after a slide of 1,200 HSI points. They seemed to be quite certain that the FOMC of US would lower the federal interst rate on the same day in USA daytime. My friend later confirmed to me she was consoled and assured by an acquainted financial consultant of a US Bank (ranked no.1) at 4:15 p.m.on that day that the FOMC would soon reduce the interest rate at that night. And it did happen as what she predicted.

I consider this was a great suspicious "insider trading" case of which many of the HK people were great losers. Could our SFC take the initiative, investigate into the matter and give us an answer?

金仔 說...

ky,

"講到尾,即只有上週五起夠膽在低位不斷買貨的投資者才能大賺,除去一眾春江鴨外,究竟有多少散戶是這一類呢?"

馬沙這段就點出春江鴨(insider trading)的問題,而SFC 對大戶insider trading不聞不問,係人都知。

匿名 說...

Who cares about the market? When HSBC traded at HK$130, even C9 knows there is value in the stock. I don't understand why 馬沙 and those so called conservative value investors did not put money where their mouth is.

Abacus1 說...

馬沙,

There are over 1,000 stocks in HK, of which at least 100 are quality ones, yet you can't find even one to buy during last week's correction is really mind boggling. I think you are either too clever
or conservative.

閒人 說...

馬沙,
I suggest you invest in batches. Otherwise, you will not buy even there is another down turn. No one knows exactly the future market trend, take action once the stock price is good.

Cheers

Char 說...

5971.hk gogogo

匿名 說...

I sold all my stocks (whether or not they made money or not) on 27/7 based on my own technical interpretation of the index and optimistic response of my colleague towards QDII news that day. The market has been dropping since then. The cash collected provide me bullets for the crash. In the last Wed, I started collecting 5 and 2628. On that Fri, I bought 5 and 3968 based on the believe that when the market is panic, you have to be greedy!

匿名 說...

I bought HSBC in the morning at $134 and dared not to buy more in the afternoon. I was too scary as I never experienced such wildly volatility in the same day. In the afternoon I was wondering if I should sell all my stocks to cut loss, I'm happy that I didn't make that stupid decision.

Suyi

匿名 說...

你又睇錯市啦.

點解仲唔肯認自己係睇錯?

donkai 說...

馬沙,
我成個星期都無入到貨,因為覺得佢升得唔合理,次按咁大件事,點解咁快就當無左件事,
將來係點!?起碼都要等到十月美國公佈樓市斷供數據先知係龍定蟲!!!

pplusone 說...

呢頭李嘉誠叫人小心D, 果頭李兆基又勁吹自己投資年尾會有2500億。究竟邊句至真?

匿名 說...

正常的話, 我都唔夠膽入個市, 因實在太波動. 但我於8月10日仍以$4.23入了東風(0489), 只因看好其公司表現, 打算$4.8放手. 經歷了上星期五暴跌至$3.1又彈升回$4左右, 突然又出現「自由行」政策, 我個人就變得有點投機, 調升了賣出價, 打算星期五左右放手.

還有一些新仔師奶愚見, 我信李嘉誠先生話而家股市在高位, 太瘋狂, 也信之前有分析員指跌4成才算是調整 (那時約為21500點). 7月中, 甚至有電視報導話有恐怖襲擊威脅之類之類, 真可嚇到一些穩健投資者卻步, 日日睇佢幾時跌. 但我亦相信今天的市場, 某部份人忘了公司業績只為搵快錢, 明明次按仲有得爆, 但見東方剛有一班玩得火起的股市新仔手持大量資金, 排隊開戶要投資, 見識過他們掃LV就知他們有多厲害, 透過在香港這個自由股票市場, 快買快放, 托一托為升市, 就或多或少可吸引一班人投資, 再沽貨爾補之前在次按的失地. 加上升升降降, 「股神」開口宣示賺大錢, 弄得大夥心痕難擋, 這就不難明有一批人也認為自己恰當做「股神」, 連那些本打算手持資金待調整後入市的人都一日比一日眼紅, 變成忍不住盲目入市. 如此一來, 或能如廁所泵一樣, 吸一下收起, 大批新資金就沖晒入大海. 一個大好機會引入大量新錢救全世界市場, 邊會咁快玩死福地?

ccwhk 說...

17 Aug
Buy 3993 at 12.1

20 Aug
Sell 2823 at 218

27 Aug
Sell 945 at 299

28 Aug
Sell 3993 at 15.36